THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SEA SURFACE WIND ALONG THE COAST OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE IN CHINA     

廖菲  邓华  陈柏纬 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(1):129-140

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of sea surface wind in Guangdong''s coastal areas were analyzed with data from four offshore observational stations between 2012 and 2015. The results are shown as follows: (1) The probability distribution of wind speed was basically consistent with Gaussian distribution characteristics; winds of Beaufort force 6 or higher were observed mainly in far offshore stations from October to March. (2) The probability distribution of wind direction was represented well by Weibull distribution. The deviation of wind direction of far station was relatively small for it was mainly controlled by monsoon over the South China Sea, while the near offshore station had a relatively large diurnal variation because of the influence of local synoptic systems such as sea-land breeze. (3) There were significant seasonal differences in wind speed and direction observed by different offshore observational stations. In strong wind seasons, the deviation of wind direction was relatively small while the deviation of wind speed was relatively large, and vice versa. In contrast with Class I station, the other three stations exhibited approximately normal distribution of wind direction and wind speed deviations. (4) Wind direction diurnal variation was moderate in windy periods, while it was obvious in relatively lower speed conditions. The deviation of wind speed in windy periods was generally greater because it was influenced by mesoscale weather systems for 10-20 h, and the influence was complicated, resulting in greater local differences in wind speed.  相似文献   

INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION OF STRATOSPHERIC ZONAL WIND     

韩浦城  简茂球  林晓霞 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(2):162-170

This study investigates the interdecadal variability of Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) based on the sounding data in the stratosphere, ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis data in the past 62 years. The QBO periodicity experiences a significant interdecadal variability; the longer (shorter) the mean period, the smaller (larger) the amplitude of variation is. The QBO amplitude varies in a cycle around 10 to 15 years and in an out-of-phase correlation with the period. In addition, there is an increasing trend of the QBO amplitude in 30 to 10 hPa, while a little declining trend in 70 to 40 hPa. The deviation of the QBO zonal wind extremum centers from the equator also shows interdecadal variability. The deviation location of the easterly core is generally in the reverse side to the westerly core, which means that when the easterly core is on one side of a hemisphere, the westerly core is on the other side.  相似文献   

北京“623”大暴雨的强降水超级单体特征和成因研究     

张文龙  崔晓鹏  黄荣  黎慧琦 《大气科学》2019,43(5):1171-1190

本文利用雷达、加密地面自动站等高时空分辨率的观测资料,结合NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、常规观测等资料,对2011年6月23日发生在北京城区的极端强降水事件开展了细致的观测和诊断分析。结果表明,这次极端强降水事件,主要是由向东南移动的东北—西南走向的飑线右端的强降水超级单体（High Precipitation Supercell,简称HPS）造成的,这是目前已有文献记载的中国发生纬度最高的HPS。HPS在移动方向的右后侧和右前侧均有明显的“V”型入流,这不同于已有HPS模型,表明中、低层干冷空气和低层暖湿气流特征显著。在环境条件方面,存在对流层低层逆温层,其能量存储盖作用使得雷暴具有爆发性增强的潜势,但该逆温层是在08:00～14:00（北京时,下同）的6小时内形成的,对业务预报极具挑战性。相对其他大气层结热动力参数, 风暴相对螺旋度和粗理查逊数在14:00较08:00显著增大,对HPS的发生具有一定指示作用。高空偏西风急流和低层偏东风活动显著,使得北京地区的水平风垂直切变增强,形成上干下湿的对流不稳定以及次级环流圈。高空急流造成强烈的相当位温差动平流,促进对流不稳定度发展加强。结合复杂地形作用,在北京西部100 m地形高度线附近形成显著的平原暖湿空气与山地干冷空气的干湿分界线以及风场辐合线。水汽供应主要源自低层偏东风和本地水汽积累。当飑线从西北方向侵入北京并向东南方向移动时,在北部山区,由于条件不足,雷暴没有显著发展加强;然而,在西部山区,在湖面、城市热岛、低层偏东风、冷池出流共同作用下,加之其他有利的环境条件,飑线右端雷暴强烈发展加强,特别是当经过100 m地形高度线附近时发展成为HPS,进而造成石景山区模式口站的大暴雨中心。  相似文献   

一次东北冷涡下槽后强风与飑线后向入流演变及成因分析     

张乐楠  丁治英  王咏青  张璐 《气象科学》2019,39(4):488-501

本文利用NCEP分析资料、多普勒雷达观测资料、常规气象观测资料以及数值模拟结果,对2016年7月30日发生在华北、辽宁附近的一次强飑线过程中后向入流的演变及成因进行研究。结果表明,此次飑线发生在中纬度新生冷涡槽前,低层有水汽辐合区和地面辐合线对应,且过程中伴有较强的对流有效位能释放。飑线后部中层(冷涡槽后)一直存在α中尺度西风大值带,此大风速带造成了上下层相反的水平涡度,并形成喇叭形环流结构,该结构不同于经典飑线结构。飑线后部水平方向上水平涡度分布不均匀,并形成水平涡度旋度上正下负的分布,即导致中层强风区上部上升运动、下部下沉运动,该下沉运动引发飑线中的后向入流和低层强风速带形成。在中层,飑线的后部边缘始终有较强的风速大值带伴随飑线的发展,该大值带的形成与对流强弱和非热成风涡度有关,对流过程中低层非热成风涡度为负,中上层非热成风涡度为正,导致飑线后部中层西风加速和低层西风减速,有利于后向入流的发展和飑线的维持,当对流减弱时,非热成风涡度与后向入流均减弱。文中给出了后向入流形成演变的概念模式。  相似文献   

登陆我国热带气旋中心最低气压和最大风速关系研究     

殷成团  张然  熊梦婕  章卫胜  张金善 《气象科学》2019,39(6):834-838

热带气旋(TC)登陆时中心最大风速会发生明显衰减,研究此时的风压关系对风暴潮模拟和预测具有重要意义。采用中国气象局上海台风研究所数据资料,对1949—2016年风压关系序列的一致性进行检验,登陆风压关系公式拟合及误差分析。结果表明:1970s后风压关系发生变异;新公式在计算登陆风速时要优于原公式,尤其是大风速情况下;相同气压下台风在近岸时风速明显小于大洋中,且登陆时风速越大衰减越剧烈。  相似文献   

高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

杨璐  陈敏  陈明轩  高峰  秦睿  宋林烨  程丛兰 《气象学报》2019,77(2):243-255

以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统（RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration）,对雷达四维变分分析系统（VDRAS）30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:（1）长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。（2）对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。（3）通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。   相似文献   

京津冀地区低层局地大气环流的气候特征研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

曾佩生  朱蓉  范广洲  李泽椿  王月冬 《气象》2019,45(3):381-394

本文采用2007-2016年的中尺度数值模拟结果和15个地面气象站观测资料,定义了局地风场表征风速,研究京津冀平原地区局地大气环流日变化的气候特征,并对区域大气污染及其输送的影响进行分析。此外,对2016年12月30日至2017年1月7日北京地区跨年大气重污染过程进行了个例分析。得到结论:京津冀平原地区低空风场变化是天气系统与局地大气环流共同作用的结果,山谷风环流致使太行山和燕山沿线平原地区大气边界层内的长年主导风向为偏北和偏南;太行山和燕山沿线地区山谷风环流本身呈顺时针旋转的日变化特征,夜间至早晨谷风转向山风,午后至夜间山风转向谷风;在午后谷风向山风转向期间,容易形成沿太行山东麓和燕山南麓、自南向东北的"弓形"气流输送通道,此气流输送通道在1月于21时左右形成,持续时间大约3 h,在7月于18时左右形成,持续时间可达9 h;冬季午后至晚间盛行谷风时,受山体的阻挡,污染物容易在山前累积,导致污染浓度增高;夏季同样的情况会发生在后半夜。  相似文献   

Kinetic energy budget and moisture flux convergence analysis during interaction between two cyclonic systems: Case study     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

An analysis of the kinetic energy budget during a case of interaction between middle latitude and extratropical cyclones has been made in this work. Horizontal flux convergence constitutes a major energy sink. Generation of kinetic energy via cross-contour flow is a persistent source throughout the growth and decay periods. Dissipation of kinetic energy from subgrid to grid scales is an important source during the pre-storm period; it acts as a sink during the growth and decay periods. The major contribution to kinetic energy comes from a persistent upper tropospheric jet stream activity throughout the period of the cyclone development. The characteristics of moisture-flux components (divergent and rotational) along with precipitable water content for different tropospheric layers throughout the life cycle of our cyclone are also studied in this work. It is found that most of required humidity for our cyclone are initiated from Arabian Sea and then to some extent are reinforced over Gulf of Aden and east of central Africa and then by passing over Red sea enter to the south and south east of Mediterranean Sea. The rotational component of the moisture transport brings moisture from two regions; the first which is considered the main region is the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and north east of Sudan. The second source region is the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. In the middle troposphere, the primary moisture source is found over central Africa, which in turn is traced to the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea. The upper-level moisture fluxes are weak and play a minor role over the area of interaction between two cyclones.  相似文献   

基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测     

王朋  孙永辉  翟苏巍  候栋宸  王森 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(4):460-466

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.  相似文献   

基于偏最小二乘回归的区域换式风速预报订正技术研究     

杨程  姜瑜君  余贞寿  姜文东  康丽莉  王丽吉 《气象》2019,(5):676-684

利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013-2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91.7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86.5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。  相似文献